国际麻醉学与复苏杂志   2025, Issue (4): 0-0
    
估算的脉搏波传导速度对急性心肌梗死患者一年全因死亡的预测价值:使用倾向评分匹配的回顾性队列研究
刘畅, 张剑, 尹程可, 隋欣, 徐文佳, 崔宝彬, 韩非1()
1.哈尔滨医科大学附属肿瘤医院
Predictive value of estimated pulse wave velocity for 1-year all-cause mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction: a retrospective cohort study using propensity score matching
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摘要:

目的 评价估算的脉搏波传导速度(estimated pulse wave velocity, ePWV)与急性心肌梗死(acute myocardial infarction, AMI)危重患者一年死亡率之间的关系。 方法 选取美国重症监护医学信息数据库(Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care, MIMIC-IV, v2.2)中的成年AMI患者。根据出院一年的结局,将患者分为生存组和死亡组。为减少偏倚,我们采用了倾向评分匹配(propensity score matching, PSM),并利用Kaplan-Meier曲线来评估各组的累积生存率。采用限制性立方样条(restricted cubic spline, RCS)分析和Cox回归探讨ePWV与一年死亡率之间的关系。通过亚组分析进一步验证结果的稳健性。 结果 共有4 242名成年AMI患者被纳入最终分析。RCS显示ePWV与出院一年死亡风险呈线性相关(非线性P=0.407, P0.001)。PSM后,共匹配1 552对患者。与低ePWV组相比,高ePWV组的死亡率显著增高(P0.001)。Kaplan-Meier曲线显示,PSM前后,高ePWV组AMI患者出院一年累积生存率明显低于低ePWV组(χ²=191.64, P0.001; χ²=108.76, P0.001)。即使在调整了各种混杂因素后,多变量 Cox 回归分析显示,ePWV升高是AMI患者全因死亡的独立因素[风险比(hazard ratio, HR) 2.48, 95%CI 2.09~2.95, P0.001]。亚组分析显示ePWV与性别和急性肾损伤之间存在显著的交互作用(P=0.01; P=0.035)。 结论 高ePWV与AMI患者出院一年死亡风险增加显著相关。ePWV是AMI危重患者一年死亡率的独立预测因子。

关键词: 估算的脉搏波传导速度;急性心肌梗死;重症监护室;预测价值
Abstract:

Objective To investigate the relationship between estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV) and 1-year mortality in critically ill patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Methods Adult AMI patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV, v2.2) Database were selected. Patients were categorized into the survival and the non-survival groups based on 1-year outcomes. To minimize bias, propensity score matching (PSM) was used. Cumulative survival in each group was assessed using Kaplan-Meier curves. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis and Cox regression were used to explore the relationship between ePWV and 1-year mortality. The robustness of the results was further verified by subgroup analysis. Results A total of 4 242 adult AMI patients were included in the final analysis. ePWV was linearly associated with the risk of death at one year of discharge as shown by the RCS (nonlinear P=0.407, P0.001). 1 552 pairs of patients were matched after PSM. The mortality rate was significantly higher in the high ePWV group compared with the low ePWV group (P0.001). Kaplan-Meier curves showed that before and after PSM, the 1-year cumulative survival rate at discharge for AMI patients in the high ePWV group was significantly lower than that in the low ePWV group (χ²=191.64, P0.001; χ²=108.76, P0.001). After adjusting for various confounders, multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that elevated ePWV was an independent factor for all-cause mortality in patients with AMI [hazard ratio (HR) 2.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.09~2.95, P0.001]. Gender and acute kidney injury were shown to be significantly interactive with ePWV in subgroup analysis (P=0.01; P=0.035). Conclusion High ePWV was significantly associated with an increased risk of death at 1 year of hospital discharge in AMI patients. ePWV is an independent predictor of 1-year mortality in critically ill patients with AMI.

Key words: Estimated pulse wave velocity; Acute myocardial infarction; Intensive care unit; Predictive value