国际麻醉学与复苏杂志   2025, Issue (8): 0-0
    
成人脊柱侧凸矫形术后手术部位感染预测模型的建立和内部验证
周俊宇, 高祺, 许光鑫, 王蕊宇, 姚媛媛, 严敏1()
1.浙江医科大学附属第二医院
Development and internal validation of a predictive model for surgical site infection after adult scoliosis surgery
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摘要:

目的:手术部位感染(surgical site infection, SSI)是成人脊柱侧凸术后常见且严重的并发症。本研究拟借助临床预测模型来评估术后SSI发生的可能性,以期早期识别风险较高的患者,从而有助于改进围术期管理策略。 方法:本研究回顾性收集了2013年4月至2023年12月于浙江大学医学院附属第二医院行脊柱侧凸矫形术的743名成人患者资料。采用两种方法(单因素和多因素Logistic回归与LASSO回归)筛选预测变量。筛选出的变量通过多因素Logistic回归建立术后SSI的预测模型,并通过列线图进行可视化。分别绘制ROC曲线、校准曲线及临床决策分析曲线评估临床预测模型的性能。 结果:在研究的743例患者中,共有57例发生了术后SSI。单因素和多因素Logistic回归与LASSO回归分别进行了变量筛选并建立模型,经过对比,选择使用了LASSO回归分析筛选出的预测变量构建的模型。该预测模型包含的变量为:术前血红蛋白、糖尿病、Cobb角、围术期铁剂治疗。通过Bootstrap的方法,进行了内部验证,模型的AUC值为0.846(95%CI:0.785,0.906),敏感度为0.684,特异度为0.843。校准曲线和临床决策曲线显示预测模型有较好的校准度及临床应用价值。 结论:本研究建立了预测成人脊柱侧凸矫形术后SSI的预测模型,绘制了直观的列线图。该模型包含了4个预测变量,可预测术后SSI发生的概率,对术后SSI的防治可能具有临床价值。

关键词: 脊柱侧凸,手术部位感染,预测模型,危险因素,贫血
Abstract:

Objective: Surgical site infection (SSI) is a common and serious complication after scoliosis surgery in adults. This study aims to use a clinical prediction model to assess the likelihood of postoperative SSI, with the goal of early identification of patients at high risk, thereby aiding in the improvement of perioperative management strategies. Methods: This study retrospectively collected data from 743 adult patients who underwent scoliosis surgery at the Second Affiliated Hospital Zhejiang University School of Medicine from April 2013 to December 2023. Two methods (univariate and multivariate Logistic regression, and LASSO regression) were used to select predictive variables. The selected variables were then used to establish a prediction model for postoperative SSI through multivariate Logistic regression, and the model was visualized using a nomogram. The performance of the clinical prediction model was assessed by plotting the ROC curve, calibration curve, and clinical decision analysis curve. Results: Among the 743 patients in the study, a total of 57 cases developed postoperative SSI. Variable selection and model construction were performed using univariate and multivariate Logistic regression as well as LASSO regression. After comparison, the model built with predictive variables selected through LASSO regression analysis was chosen. The predictive model included variables such as preoperative hemoglobin, diabetes mellitus, Cobb angle, and perioperative iron therapy. Internal validation was conducted using the Bootstrap method, with the model's AUC value being 0.846 (95% CI: 0.785, 0.906), sensitivity of 0.684, and specificity of 0.843. The calibration curve and clinical decision curve indicated that the prediction model had good calibration and clinical utility. Conclusions: This study has established a predictive model for surgical site infection (SSI) following adult scoliosis surgery, accompanied by a visually intuitive nomogram. The model incorporates four predictive variables that can estimate the probability of postoperative SSI, potentially offering clinical value in the prevention and treatment of postoperative SSI.

Key words: Scoliosis, Surgical site infection, Prediction model, Risk factors,Anemia