国际麻醉学与复苏杂志   2025, Issue (3): 0-0
    
麻醉苏醒室患者术后口渴风险预测模型的构建及验证
郑敏, 陆小英, 张丽君, 薄禄龙, 彭琳1()
1.长海医院
Construction and validation of a postoperative thirst risk prediction nomogram model in PACU patients
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摘要:

目的 探讨麻醉苏醒室(post-anesthsia care unit,PACU)患者术后口渴的影响因素,构建其风险预测模型并检验预测效果。方法 选取2023年12月至2024年3月入PACU苏醒的366例患者,建模组与验证组按照比例2:1,随机分为建模组244例、验证组122例。采用数字口渴评分量表(Numerical Rate Scale,NRS)进行口渴评分,建模组根据评分结果分为口渴组(n=183)和非口渴组(n=61)。根据Logistic回归分析危险因素,利用R软件绘制列线图预测风险模型, Hosmer-Lemeshow检测判断模型的拟合优度,采用受试者操作特征曲线下面积检测模型的预测效果。结果PACU患者术后口渴的发生率为75.0%,口渴预测模型纳入风险因素分别为年龄、高血压病史、禁食禁饮时长、留置气管导管时长、使用抗胆碱能药(p<0.05)。该模型的Hosmer-Lemeshow检测p=0.592,受试者操作特征曲线下面积为0.820(95%CI为0.770~0.880),最佳临界值为0.727,灵敏度为0.851,特异度为0.810。模型外部验证显示正确率为82.79%,提示模型具有较好的拟合效果和较高的预测价值。结论 PACU患者术后口渴发生率高,该研究构建的模型具有较好的预测效果,能早期、高效预测PACU患者术后口渴发生的风险,为术后口渴的早期评估和预防提供科学依据。

关键词: 苏醒室;口渴;风险因素;预测模型;列线图
Abstract:

Objective To investigate the influencing factors of postoperative thirst in post-anesthsia care unit (PACU) patients, and to construct the risk prediction nomogram model and test the prediction effect . Methods A total of 366 patients were admitted to the PACU from December 2023 to March 2024.They were selected and randomly divided into 244 cases in the modeling group and 122 cases in the validation group according to the ratio of 2:1. Thirst was scored using the Numerical Rate Scale (NRS), and the modeling group was divided into thirst group (n=183) and non-thirst group (n=61) according to the score results.Logistic regression was used to analyze risk factors.R software was used to draw the nomogram predictive risk model.Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to judge the goodness of fit of the model. The area under ROC curve was used to detect the predictive effect of the model.Results The incidence of postoperative thirst in PACU patients in the modeling group was 75.0%, and the risk factors included in the thirst prediction model were age, history of hypertension, ,fasting time,inwelling tracheal tube duration, administration anticholinergic drug (p <0.05). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test result of the model showed that p=0.592; the area under the ROC curve was 0.820(0.770~0.880);the optimal critical value was 0.727;the sensitivity was 0.851;the specificity was 0.810;the accuracy of external validation was 81.97%.They suggested that the model had good fitting and high predictive value .Conclusion The incidence of postoperative thirst is high in PACU patients. The nomogram model constructed in this study can predict the risk of postoperative thirst in PACU patients early and efficiently.It provides a scientific basis for the early assessment and prevention of postoperative thirst.

Key words: Post-anesthsia Care Unit; Thirst; Risk Factors;Prediction Model;Nomogram