国际麻醉学与复苏杂志   2025, Issue (1): 0-0
    
基于机器学习算法构建胸科患者术后并发症的预测模型
许珍真, 李雪, 谢柯祺, 梁新全, 刘庆浩, 陈冰璐, 柳洁, 闫婷, 王东信1()
1.北京大学第一医院
Establishment of machine learning‑based prediction models for complications in patients after thoracic surgery
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摘要:

目的 评估使用不同机器学习算法构建胸科手术术后并发症预测模型的效果并进行比较。 方法 该研究是一项针对既往两项随机对照研究数据的二次分析,共收集并分析了868例胸科手术患者的临床数据(术前、术中、术后资料)。根据患者是否出现术后并发症,分为有并发症组(255例)和无并发症组(613例)。以住院期间术后并发症(包括肺部并发症、心血管并发症、急性肾损伤、术后脑梗死、谵妄、外科并发症)为主要研究终点,采用最近邻(KNN)、随机森林(Random Forest)、支持向量机(SVM)、极致梯度提升(XGBoost)、正则化回归(Glmnet)和逻辑回归(logistic)等机器学习算法分别构建住院期间术后并发症的预测模型。通过5折交叉验证进行模型内部验证,计算受试者操作特征曲线下面积、校准度和准确率,选择表现最佳的模型进行特征重要性分析。 结果 术前资料方面,两组患者性别、年龄、白蛋白水平、吸烟史、饮酒史、高血压病、美国麻醉医师协会(ASA)分级、1秒率[第1秒用力呼气量(FEV1)/用力肺活量(FVC)]及最大分钟通气量(MVV)差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。术中资料方面,两组患者围手术期预防性吸入戊乙奎醚、是否使用七氟醚/右美托咪定、术中舒芬太尼等效剂量、术中舒芬太尼剂量、术中出血量、液体正平衡情况、术中输血、术中是否出现低血压/高血压、手术时长、手术方式、手术种类、术后是否进入重症监护治疗病房(ICU)、术毕是否拔除气管导管差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。术后资料方面,两组患者术后第3天的静息和术后第1~3天的运动数字分级评分法(NRS)评分、病理类型确诊恶性肿瘤、住院时长差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。其余临床数据指标差异均无统计学意义(均P>0.05)。868例患者中有255例(约29.4%)发生术后并发症,肺部并发症发生率(154例,约17.7%)最高,心血管并发症(92例,约10.6%)次之。Glmnet算法构建的预测模型表现最佳,曲线下面积为0.773[95%置信区间(CI) 0.746~0.779]、准确率为0.765(95%CI 0.721~0.778),校准度为0.165(95%CI 0.158~0.182)。按照特征重要性排序,使患者更容易出现术后并发症的前10位变量依次是:手术时间长、围手术期未预防性吸入戊乙奎醚、性别为男性、术后第3天运动NRS评分高、术后进入ICU、手术种类为胃/食管、MVV低、术中舒芬太尼等效剂量大、年龄高、术中出血量大。 结论 在预测胸科手术后并发症中,Glmnet算法建立的模型表现最佳。构建最优模型并进行特征重要性分析对临床决策和围手术期管理具有重要价值。

关键词: 胸科手术; 术后并发症; 机器学习算法; 预测模型
Abstract:

Objective To evaluate the efficiency of different machine learning algorithms in constructing prediction models for postoperative complications in thoracic surgery and compare their performance. Methods This study involved secondary analysis of data from two previous randomized controlled trials, collecting preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative data from 868 thoracic surgery patients. The patients were divided into two groups based on the presence of postoperative complications: a complication group (n=255) and a non‑complication group (n=613). Primary endpoints were postoperative complications during hospitalization, including pulmonary complications, cardiovascular complications, acute kidney injury, postoperative stroke, delirium, and surgical complications. Machine learning algorithms such as K⁃Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Random Forest, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XG⁃Boost), regularized regression (Glmnet), and Logistic Regression were used to establish prediction models for postoperative complications during hospitalization. The models were internally validated through 5⁃fold cross‑validation, and their area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration, and accuracy were calculated to select the optimal model for feature importance analysis. Results Statistical differences were observed between the two groups in preoperative data, such as gender, age, albumin levels, smoking history, alcohol consumption, hypertension, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) ratio, and maximal voluntary ventilation (MVV) (all P<0.05). There were also statistical differences in intraoperative data, such as prophylactic inhalation of penehyclidine hydrochloride, use of sevoflurane/dexmedetomidine, equivalent doses of intraoperative sufentanil, intraoperative sufentanil dosage, intraoperative blood loss, fluid balance, intraoperative transfusion, intraoperative hypotension/hypertension, duration of surgery, surgical approach, surgical type, postoperative intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and extubation at the end of surgery (all P<0.05). Postoperative data, including the Numerical Rating Scale (NRS) scores at rest on postoperative day 3 and the scores during movement on postoperative days 1−3, pathological diagnosis of malignancy, and length of hospitalization stay, were statistically different (all P<0.05). There were no statistical differences in other indicators (all P>0.05). Among the 868 patients, 255 (approximately 29.4%) experienced postoperative complications, with pulmonary complications (n=154, approximately 17.7%) being the most common, followed by cardiovascular complications (n=92, approximately 10.6%). The Glmnet algorithm showed the optimal performance, with an AUC of 0.773 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.746, 0.779], an accuracy of 0.765 (95%CI 0.721, 0.778), and a calibration score of 0.165 (95%CI 0.158, 0.182). The top 10 variables most associated with an increased risk of postoperative complications were: longer surgery duration, lack of prophylactic inhalation of penehyclidine hydrochloride, male gender, higher NRS pain scores during movement on postoperative day 3, postoperative ICU admission, gastric/esophageal surgery, lower MVV, higher intraoperative sufentanil dosage, older age, and greater intraoperative blood loss. Conclusions Among the machine learning algorithms, the model constructed using Glmnet algorithm has the optimal performance for predicting postoperative complications in thoracic surgery. Constructing an optimal model and performing feature importance analysis is of significant value for clinical decision⁃making and perioperative management.

Key words: Thoracic surgery; Postoperative complications; Machine learning; Predictive model